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Scientific American: Peak oil soon

Peak phosphorus on the radar again.

Intensive agriculture is totally dependent on phosphate for the fertility needed to grow crops and grass. Worldwide 158 million tonnes of phosphate rock is mined every year, but the supply is finite. Recent analysis suggests that we may hit ‘peak’ phosphate as early as 2033, after which supplies will become increasingly scarce and more expensive. [2]

This critical issue is missing from the global policy agenda - we are completely unprepared to deal with the shortages in phosphorus inputs, the drop in production and the hike in food prices that will follow. Without fertilisation from phosphorus it has been estimated that wheat yields could more then halve in coming decades, falling from nine tonnes a hectare to four tonnes a hectare. The current price of phosphate rock is approximately twice that of 2006. When demand for phosphate fertiliser outstripped supply in 2007/08, the price of rock phosphate rose 800%.


http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/12/mckinsey-proposes-green-revolution.html

 

Peak oil… peak global warming….now peak phosphorus….yes, the sky is falling….. oh well then, peak “Praise the Lord”........

Goodbye cruel world…. ( Dave’s ) God is impotent.

 

( Dave’s ) God is impotent.

If this is your counter argument, let’s sue God for all the senseless car crashes and wars and STD’s and every other form of suffering that is a result of human stupidity and selfishness. Why doesn’t God just step in and stop every bullet in every chamber after every gun has been fired? Would it be something to do with human choice and human responsibility for the messes we get ourself in? Would it be something also to do with God’s judgement on us?

I only bother to update this thread because I have seen the potential solutions for these problems, if society can be warned to prepare before it is too late. With peak oil a historical event now and the arc of decline about to bite, I don’t have great hope about our ability to act before an event. If you’re any guide, the average Aussie just doesn’t want to know.

[ Edited: 04 December 2010 09:19 PM by Dave Lankshear]
 

Possible solution to Peak Phosporus?:
   
(or, ‘It’s life, Jim, but not as we know it’)
   

nasa-announcement-unveils-arsenic-surviving-bacteria
The recent discovery of an arsenic-eating bacterium at Mono Lake, California is changing the way scientists look at life on earth and elsewhere in the Universe. The findings of this bacterium, by Felisa Wolfe-Simon and her colleagues, and what it means for our world was published in the December 2nd issue of Science Magazine and was announced in live broadcast originating from NASA on the same day.

Prior to this discovery scientists worked off of the basic assumption that all life forms are created from six main elements: carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. Before these bacteria were discovered it was believed that life as we knew it depended on these elements being present.It seems that that has never been the case. This arsenic-eating bacteria, currently dubbed GFAJ-1, is from a hyper-saline and highly alkaline environment. The area of Mono Lake is also known for having very high amounts of arsenic. These bacteria can not only handle high amounts of arsenic, but when starved of other elements it will actually substitute arsenic for another element in its DNA and continue to grow and thrive.
Paul Davies from the Center for Fundamental Concepts in Science at Arizona State University said that, “It is the first time in the history of biology that there’s been anything found that can use one of the different elements in the basic structure.” He went on to say that Wolfe-Simon’s findings, “can only reinforce people’s belief that life can exist under a much wider range of environments than hitherto believed.” He sees this discovery as the beginning of a whole new field of microbiology.

More impressive is research showing that this organism can actually survive on either arsenic or phosphorus, and it does not seem to care which elements it gets. The leader of the study Wolfe-Simon was quoted saying, “I have no idea how they’re doing what they’re doing.”

This discovery actually leads to many more questions and many in the scientific field are skeptical. Davies said that this was most likely the tip of a very large iceberg, saying, “[it] would be very unlikely to have found the only arsenic life-form on earth on the first try.”

 
Now, there’s been sci-fi with silicon-  instead of carbon- based life forms, but who’d have thought of arsenic instead of phosphorus?
 
Edit: I know this isn’t actually a solution unless we could evolve to live off arsenic.

[ Edited: 07 December 2010 04:07 PM by Ros Burgess]
 

Here’s some sci-fi by Huxley. on these matters. Pretty cool given he wrote it over a hundred years ago!

******

Aldous Huxley, Point Counter Point (novel published in 1928)
[page 56-7]

… Lord Edward started at the word. It touched a trigger, it released a flood of energy. “Progress!” he echoed and the tone of misery and embarrassment was exchanged for one of confidence. “Progress! You politicians are always talking about it. As though it were going to last. Indefinitely. More motors, more babies, more food, more advertizing, more money, more everything, forever. You ought to take a few lessons in my subject. Physical biology. Progress indeed! What do you propose to do about phosphorus, for example?” His question was a personal accusation.

“But all this is entirely beside the point,” said Webley impatiently.

“On the contrary,” retorted Lord Edward, “it’s the only point.” His voice had become loud and severe. He spoke with a much more than ordinary degree of coherence. Phosphorus made a new man of him; he felt very strongly about phosphorus and, feeling strongly, he was strong. The worried bear had become the worrier. “With your intensive agriculture,” he went on, “you’re simply draining the soil of phosphorus. More than half of one per cent a year. Going clean out of circulation. And then the way you throw away hundreds of thousands of tons of phosphorus pentoxide in your sewage! Pouring it into the sea. And you call that progress. Your modern sewage systems!” His tone was witheringly scornful. “You ought to be putting it back where it came from. On the land.” Lord Edward shook an admonitory finger and frowned. “On the land, I tell you.”

“But all this has nothing to do with me,” progrested Webley.

“Then it ought to,” Lord Edward answered sternly. “That’s the trouble with you politicians. You don’t even think of the important things. Talking about progress and votes and Bolshevism and every year allowing a million tons of phosphorus pentoxide to run away into the sea. It’s idiotic, it’s criminal. it’s … it’s fiddling while Rome is burning.” He saw Webley opening his mouth to speak and made haste to anticipate what he imagined was going to be his objection. “No doubt,” he said, “you think you can make good the loss with phosphate rocks. But what’ll you do when the deposits are exhausted?” He poked Everard in the shirt front. “What then? Only two hundred years and they’ll be finished. You think we’re being progressive because we’re living on our capital. Phosphates, coal, petroleum, nitre – squander them all. That’s your policy. And meanwhile you go round trying to make our flesh creep with talk about revolutions.”
(1928)
English author Aldous Huxley (“Brave New World”) came from a family steeped in biology and incorporated biological themes in his work.

According to Wikipedia, The character Everard Webley is a charismatic fascist-like figure. Lord Edward Tantamount is an amateur biologist.

 

UK to the rescue - new oil field found !!!  More to follow perhaps. So it’s not over yet, afterall, eh. “Time for a cup of tea I think. Jolly good show, eh what ?”  ;)

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/oil-found-in-small-english-villages-ancient-woodland/story-e6freuyi-1225984108856

Oil found in small English village’s ancient woodland

By staff writers   From:NewsCore       January 08, 2011   10:39AM


A SMALL British village has been dubbed the “Texas of England” after a European oil company announced it has discovered a £345 million ($532 million) oil reserve in nearby woodland.

Northern Petroleum said Thursday that drilling in Markwells Wood in West Sussex, southern England, had yielded oil and the company would now drill 4528 feet (1380 metres) in the hope of producing between 35 million and 61 million barrels of oil.

The company’s managing director, Derek Musgrove, described the discovery as “encouraging” and said the find should enhance the value of Northern Petroleum’s “other undeveloped discoveries and exploration prospects” in the UK.

 

35 million and 61 million barrels of oil.

What… that’s it? That’s the TOTAL OIL in the field! This should read,
“Newsflash: half a day’s oil found in a small English village — locals will make a little money”.

(The World burns 86 million barrels a day or a thousand bathtubs of oil a second).

 

This has got to about wrap it up even for the likes of Kevin.

Wikileaks shows US Diplomats believe Saudi Arabia has overstated their oil reserves by 40%.

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/02/09/wikileaks-saudis-oil-reserves-overstated-by-nearly-40/

 

Dave, again you appear to misrepresent me. I have always thought that Arabs were lying dogs and not to be trusted.

 

http://www.rosneft.com/
Rosneft (Russian) strategic partnership with ExxonMobil, particularly wrt the arctic.

Strategic partnership with ExxonMobil
Exploration program planned for Kara Sea and Black Sea
Establishment of a joint Arctic Research and Design Center for Offshore Development (ARC) in St. Petersburg
Rosneft participation in ExxonMobil projects in the US and other countries
Joint study of possibilities to develop Western Siberia tight oil resources
The companies form a strategic partnership to undertake joint projects in Russia and internationally

 
I heard this on the radio, a while back.  What got me was the interviewer casually mentioned that more oil reserves would be reachable because of artic ice melt due to climate change.  I don’t have the words to express how crazy this is.  Except this:

“A quart of wheat for a day’s wages, and three quarts of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!”


The rich and powerful will do just about anything to keep their luxuries - what do they care about everyone else?

[ Edited: 01 October 2011 03:38 PM by Ros Burgess]
 

I’m actually beginning to hear the same people who once scoffed at peak oil whining about the high oil prices. They don’t even know what they’re doing. It’s hilarious.

 
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